DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 130704
SWODY3
SPC AC 130703

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 151200Z - 161200Z

...CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE
GULF COAST STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS ON MONDAY. AT THE SFC... A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ADVANCE QUICKLY SEWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND WRN CAROLINAS BY
MIDDAY. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...THE MODELS DEVELOP POCKETS OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SC...NC AND VA BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SOME SOLUTIONS SHOW A LINE THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN THE APPALACHIAN FOOTHILLS MOVING EWD TO THE COAST BY
EARLY EVENING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/TUESDAY IN THE ERN
CAROLINAS GENERALLY SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WITH
ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE
THREAT. A POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS COULD EXTEND AS
FAR NNEWD AS SRN MD AND NJ WHERE THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL FLOW IS
FORECAST TO BE A BIT STRONGER.

..BROYLES.. 10/13/2012

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