DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS48 KWNS 130856
SWOD48
SPC AC 130855

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT SAT OCT 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ERN SEABOARD. THE TROUGH MOVES EWD INTO
THE ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY/DAY 4 AS A LONG FETCH OF WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE CONUS. ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5...THE
MODELS BRING A STRONG MID-LEVEL JET SEWD INTO THE CNTRL STATES AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS IN THE MID MS VALLEY. MOISTURE MAY RETURN
NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. BY THURSDAY/DAY 6...THE MODELS DEVELOP A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL
LOW CENTERED OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND DRIVE A STRONG COLD FRONT
SEWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS DURING THE
LATER PART OF THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SCNTRL STATES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...IT APPEARS MOISTURE
RETURN AND INSTABILITY WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH
AN AREA WITH AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT CAN NOT BE RULED
OUT...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS LOW ATTM.

..BROYLES.. 10/13/2012

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