Friday, November 6, 2009

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061615
SWODY1
SPC AC 061613

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1013 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2009

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...WRN WA/WRN OREGON...
COLD UPPER LOW OVER THE NRN GULF AK IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTING FROM THE ERN PACIFIC INTO THE PACIFIC NW. 12Z UIL
SOUNDING EXHIBITS STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR 8C/KM FROM THE SURFACE
THROUGH NEARLY 400 MB AND MUCAPE OF AROUND 300 J/KG...WITH AMPLE
UPWARD MOTION THROUGH THE MIXED PHASE LAYER TO GENERATE OCCASIONAL
CG LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER WRN PARTS OF WA AND OREGON. THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE DURING THE 00-06Z PERIOD AS AN UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH APPROACH THE WA COAST.

...NERN WA/NRN ID...
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER THIS AREA AS DIURNAL HEATING COUPLED WITH MID LEVEL COOLING
STEEPEN LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN DESTABILIZATION AND
MUCAPE OF 200-400 J/KG. MOST FAVORABLE REGIONS FOR CONVECTION WILL
BE WHERE OROGRAPHIC UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCES UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION.

..WEISS/JEWELL.. 11/06/2009

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