SWOD48
SPC AC 060839
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CST FRI NOV 06 2009
VALID 091200Z - 141200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT
EJECTS EWD THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL STATES AND PHASES WITH NRN
STREAM UPPER TROUGH. A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE AND TRACK EWD ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY
NEAR THE GULF COASTAL REGION. THIS COULD RESULT IN A SMALL WARM
SECTOR MOVING INLAND MONDAY-TUESDAY (DAY 4-5). HOWEVER...DOMINANT
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION COULD BE WITH REMNANTS OF IDA AS IT EMERGES
INTO THE GULF WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT ONSHORE ADVECTION OF
RICHER MOISTURE. NET RESULT IS THAT ANY SEVERE THREAT WITH THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW WILL PROBABLY REMAIN SMALL.
BEYOND DAY 5 SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW...EXCEPT
POSSIBLY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST WHERE REMNANTS OF IDA
COULD POSE SOME THREAT. HOWEVER...PREDICTABILITY OF THE INTENSITY
AND TRACK OF THIS FEATURE IS LOW BEYOND DAY 5. SEE DISCUSSION FROM
NHC FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING IDA.
..DIAL.. 11/06/2009
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