SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151849
TXZ000-152145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0317
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0149 PM CDT THU APR 15 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS S-CENTRAL TO WRN AND CENTRAL TX.
CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
VALID 151849Z - 152145Z
MAIN MESOSCALE HEAVY RAIN THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE WITH BAND OF
TSTMS -- EVIDENT AT 18Z FROM BEE COUNTY NWWD ACROSS SAT/ERV AREAS --
AS IT SHIFTS SLOWLY NWD WHILE BACKBUILDING ON ITS SEWD END. RATES
1-2 INCHES/HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIEST CORES...WITH TRAINING OF
CORES IN SOME LOCALES DUE TO SLOW TRANSLATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND.
FARTHER W...ISOLATED/EMBEDDED 1 INCH/HOUR CORES ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
BROADER PRECIP PLUME FROM UVA/HDO REGION NWWD PAST MAF.
WARM-CORE/MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS BECOME MORE OPEN-WAVE IN
CHARACTER WITH EMBEDDED MESOCIRCULATIONS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL
AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY IMAGERY WITHIN AXIS ROUGHLY FROM
CNM...INK...50 W DRT...50 W LRD. THIS PERTURBATION AND RELATED
LOW-LEVEL WAA/ASCENT CONVEYOR SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD THROUGH
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...AT SFC...DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO
BOOST BUOYANCY ON ERN PERIPHERY OF ASSOCIATED CLOUD SHIELD...WHICH
ALSO WILL CONSTITUTE INFLOW LAYER FROM MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN NWWD
INTO SRN HILL COUNTRY. MODIFICATIONS TO BOTH RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH DEEP LAYER OF POTENTIAL WARM-CLOUD
PRECIP PROCESSES...YET BUOYANCY DEEP ENOUGH TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING
SCATTERED TSTMS MAINLY SE OF I-35. GREATEST AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ALSO WILL BE AVAILABLE TO SRN/SERN PORTIONS OF PRECIP
AREA...WHERE 1.5-1.75 INCH PW WILL PERSIST. RUC REASONABLY PROGS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT MAX NOW INVOF SAT TO SHIFT NNWWD TOWARD SJT
THROUGH EVENING AHEAD OF TROUGH ALOFT...BUT VERY SLOWLY. FOR
REMAINDER AFTERNOON...GREATEST PRECIP RATES SHOULD REMAIN WITH TSTMS
CLOSER TO COASTAL PLAIN AIR MASS. CLEARING/DESTABILIZATION OF
BOUNDARY LAYER ALSO IS EVIDENT BEHIND PRECIP PLUME OVER RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...FROM WEBB TO VAL VERDE COUNTIES. CONVECTION WILL BE MORE
ISOLATED/TRANSIENT IN THIS REGION BUT COULD YIELD BRIEF/LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN ALSO.
..EDWARDS.. 04/15/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 28409799 29819912 29019970 31810196 33000143 32190030
31089949 30769857 29239730 28409799
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