SWODY1
SPC AC 151619
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1119 AM CDT THU APR 15 2010
VALID 151630Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
STRONG TROUGH MANITOBA TO UPPER MS VALLEY WILL CONTINUE E DRIVING A
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY MN ACROSS UPPER GREAT LAKES BY THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH STRONG SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NRN WI/UPPER MI THIS
AFTERNOON...THE SUPPORTING WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO BE
DEFICIENT OF INSTABILITY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT. WITH HEATING MLCAPES COULD CLIMB TO 500 J/KG NERN WI INTO
UPPER MI WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
FURTHER S AHEAD OF THE FRONT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE EVEN
LESS...WITH ANY FRONTAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE.
...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
AS COLD FRONT NOW INTO NWRN KS/ERN CO CONTINUES SWD IT WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE STREAMING NWD FROM THE SRN HI
PLAINS. CLOUDS WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT THE HEATING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...BUT MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7C/KM AND DEWPOINTS INTO
THE MID/UPPER 50S WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW
STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COLD FRONT.
IN THIS AREA SHEAR IS WEAK SO ANY STRONG UPDRAFT WILL BE OF SHORT
DURATION AND LIMITED TO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PRIOR TO
CESSATION OF SURFACE HEATING.
...S TX...
INTRODUCTION OF A LOW TORNADO THREAT ACROSS S TX AT 13Z IS STILL
VALID...THUS LITTLE CHANGE.
INCREASINGLY MOIST /PW AOA 1.5 INCHES/ 2-3 KM DEEP ESELY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LWR RIO GRANDE VLY OF S TX THROUGH THIS
EVE...AHEAD OF SLOWLY-MOVING W TX UPR VORT. PERSISTENT
REDEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION WITHIN THIS REGIME ALREADY HAS
RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MCV-TYPE
CIRCULATION NEAR DRT. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE CONTINUING...DAYTIME
DESTABILIZATION MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME INCREASE IN UPDRAFT
STRENGTH/CELL LONGEVITY ALONG NRN AND ERN FRINGE OF THE MCV. GIVEN
CONSIDERABLE DEGREE OF LOW-LVL VEERING LIKELY TO PERSIST OVER
REGION...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD STORMS TO BRIEFLY ASSUME
LOW-LVL CIRCULATIONS. THESE COULD POSE A LOW PROBABILISTIC THREAT
FOR A TORNADO.
..HALES/JEWELL.. 04/15/2010
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