SWODY3
SPC AC 140728
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY/LOWER
GREAT LAKES REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE ERN U.S. IS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WHILE WEAKLY ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WRN AND CENTRAL
CONUS.
A SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
WILL LIKEWISE PROGRESS INTO THE ERN CONUS...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD
FOCUS ACTIVE CONVECTION AS IT SHIFTS ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND DROPS
SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
...OH VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES...
SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED/TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY REGION THIS PERIOD...AS THE
ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THIS
REGION. THOUGH DESTABILIZATION SHOULD BE LIMITED IN THE PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR...AMPLE CAPE SHOULD EVOLVE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT TO SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY.
AS STORMS DEVELOP...STRONG/GENERALLY WLY FLOW FIELD ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT POTENTIALLY ORGANIZED/FAST-MOVING STORMS. THUS -- POTENTIAL
FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT INTRODUCTION OF
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THIS REGION. THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME THREAT MAY LINGER EWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND
OVERNIGHT.
...SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION...
POST-FRONTAL LOW-LEVEL ELYS EVOLVING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON BENEATH MODERATE MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW MAY RESULT IN
SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
AS AIRMASS INVOF THE BOUNDARY DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON...A
CONVECTIVE INCREASE NEAR AND JUST N OF THE FRONT APPEARS POSSIBLE.
GIVEN THE BACKGROUND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FORECAST ATTM...A FEW
ORGANIZED/POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS MAY EVOLVE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO EVOLVING -- AND BECOMING WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT
SLIGHT RISK -- IS LOW ATTM. THUS...WILL INTRODUCE ONLY 5% SEVERE
POTENTIAL ATTM.
..GOSS.. 09/14/2010
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