SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140710
KSZ000-NEZ000-140915-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1825
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0210 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS ERN/NRN KS...EXTREME S-CENTRAL/SERN NEB.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659...
VALID 140710Z - 140915Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 659
CONTINUES.
SVR THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ENOUGH THAT REMAINDER WW CAN BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT SCHEDULED 10Z TIME...OR CANCELED BEFOREHAND AS
CONVECTIVE/INSTABILITY TRENDS WARRANT.
CLUSTER OF CONVECTION -- MOVING SEWD ABOUT 25-30 KT ACROSS PORTIONS
MCPHERSON/MORRIS/MARION/CHASE COUNTIES AS OF 645Z -- PRODUCED 53 KT
GUST AT SLN AT 501Z. AS OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO SPREAD WITH THIS
FORWARD-PROPAGATIONAL REGIME...SOME STG-SVR GUST POTENTIAL MAY
LINGER WITH THIS ACTIVITY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO.
HOWEVER...MODIFIED RAOBS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PROGRESSIVELY
MORE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EWD/SEWD EXTENT...DIMINISHING
PROBABILITIES OF ORGANIZED SVR ACROSS PROSPECTIVE PATH CORRIDOR FROM
EMP SEWD. ELEVATED TSTMS PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ATOP
COLD POOL BETWEEN CNK-HDE...NORMAL TO INFLOW-LAYER WIND AND ALONG
NRN EDGE OF ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MRGL HAIL
AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ACROSS NRN KS.
ALSO...AS LLJ VEERS/WEAKENS...ABSOLUTE VALUES OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND WAA SHOULD DO LIKEWISE. HOWEVER...SPATIAL EMPHASIS OF
RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL SHIFT
EWD TO SEWD ACROSS PORTIONS SERN KS AND SRN MO. WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS ALREADY ARE DEVELOPING OVER THOSE AREAS...AND CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY INCREASE THROUGH MOST OF REMAINDER OF PRE-DAWN HOURS.
HOWEVER...CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC COOLING IN RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE
BOUNDARY LAYER -- COMPARED TO FARTHER W -- WILL RENDER IT MORE
STABLE. INFLOW-LAYER PARCELS SHOULD BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN
NATURE...WITH SHALLOWER BUOYANT LAYER. THEREFORE...SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS MRGL/DISORGANIZED AND ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR
LIKELY ATTM.
..EDWARDS.. 09/14/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...
LAT...LON 38419792 38559752 38769748 39029767 39339796 40049853
40189827 39929611 39049479 38169469 37619483 37229596
38029765 38419792
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