SWODY2
SPC AC 141728
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
VALID 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY REGION...
...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE QUASI-ZONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY. THE
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY MOVING INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN AND CNTRL GREAT BASIN
REGIONS. THIS FEATURE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT AS IT
ADVANCES THROUGH THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS BEFORE TURNING ESEWD THROUGH
THE UPPER AND MID MS VALLEY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER CRESTING UPPER
RIDGE. WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD THROUGH THE MID-UPPER MS VALLEY EAST
OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
...CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH MID MS VALLEY AREA...
MCS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING FROM PARTS OF NEB INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND
UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. ACTIVITY MAY POSE AT LEAST A MODEST
THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AXIS OF RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL HAVE ADVECTED THROUGH THE WARM SECTOR TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY. AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES...MLCAPE
WILL LIKELY INCREASE TO BETWEEN 2000-2500 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A SWLY 40-50 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE MAINTAINED WITHIN ZONE OF
DPVA AND HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. THIS ZONE OF DEEPER FORCING AND A DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR
SUGGEST MORNING STORMS COULD CONTINUE AND INTENSIFY AS THEY DEVELOP
SEWD. OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
BULK SHEAR INCREASING TO 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS
INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HOWEVER...HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO
BE SUFFICIENT ALONG LOW LEVEL JET AXIS AND IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT
FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WITH DOMINANT
LINEAR MODES MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
..DIAL.. 09/14/2010
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