SWOD48
SPC AC 140855
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CDT TUE SEP 14 2010
VALID 171200Z - 221200Z
...DISCUSSION...
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...A RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE CONUS WITH
AN ENHANCED BELT OF ZONAL/WLY FLOW EVOLVING N OF THE RIDGE ACROSS
THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. THIS SUGGESTS RELATIVELY LIMITED
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/ACTIVE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.
WITH TIME...MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS AGREE IN GENERAL WITH GRADUAL
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION...AS AN ERN PACIFIC TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE WRN CONUS. LITTLE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS EVIDENT THROUGH
DAY 6 /SUN. 9-19/...AFTER WHICH MODELS BEGIN DIFFERING AS MORE SWLY
FLOW ALOFT ADVANCES SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES/TOWARD THE PLAINS
AHEAD OF THE WRN TROUGH. THIS FASTER SWLY FLOW ALOFT -- AND
POTENTIAL FOR EMBEDDED FEATURES DRIVING LEE CYCLOGENESIS -- COULD
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT ATTM
UNCERTAINTY/MODEL DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE ANY ATTEMPT AT DELINEATING
POTENTIALLY GREATER THREAT AREAS.
..GOSS.. 09/14/2010
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