DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 160553
SWODY1
SPC AC 160551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1251 AM CDT SUN SEP 16 2012

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
SOME AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER FLOW FIELD IS EXPECTED THIS
PERIOD...AS A TROUGH OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE DIGS SEWD INTO THE N
CENTRAL CONUS. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO PROGRESS SEWD...AND SHOULD EXTEND FROM UPPER MI/NERN WI SWWD
INTO SWRN KS AND THE ADJACENT OK/TX PANHANDLES BY 17/12Z. SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY TO THE
COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LOW CROSSING TX
WILL ALSO BE A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

...UPPER MI WSWWD INTO E CENTRAL/SERN SD...
WITH WARM-SECTOR CAPPING EXPECTED ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. THIS
PERIOD...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONFINED PRIMARILY
TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS SEWD ACROSS THIS
REGION. HERE...WITH ONLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL SHEAR
EXPECTED...ANY HAIL WITH THE POST-FRONTAL/ELEVATED STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE.

STILL...WITH SOME POSSIBILITY FOR LIMITED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
NEAR OR TO THE IMMEDIATE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT...AN ISOLATED
STRONGER GUST CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THUS -- WILL MAINTAIN
LOW-PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT FOR WIND IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR...PRIMARILY COVERING THE LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH MID-EVENING
PERIOD.

..GOSS.. 09/16/2012

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