SWODY1
SPC AC 101237
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0737 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
VALID 101300Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND WRN OK INTO NWRN TX...
...SRN PLAINS...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A COUPLE OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES OF
NOTE...ONE EXTENDING FROM WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER MN/IA SWWD THROUGH
ERN KS INTO NWRN OK WHERE IT LINKS WITH A SECONDARY...MORE
BAROCLINIC FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER WRN NEB SWD
THROUGH WRN KS INTO WRN TX. THE WRN-MOST COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A VORTICITY MAXIMUM LOCATED OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS WHICH IS
ROTATING AROUND PRIMARY DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE NOW CENTERED OVER NEB.
THIS VORTICITY MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS KS/OK
TODAY IN ADVANCE OF A MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE WHICH WILL ATTEND
MIDDLE AND UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE TRANSLATING SSEWD THROUGH THE CNTRL
PLAINS.
A BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS DEVELOPED THIS MORNING OVER THE OK
PNHDL INTO NRN OK WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA IN ADVANCE OF LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
THESE PROCESSES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED STORMS
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK TODAY WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/SW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...COMPARATIVELY STRONGER DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED...WHICH
WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG BY
MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MORE ROBUST...SURFACE-BASED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN 10/21Z-11/00Z FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO
NWRN TX ALONG COLD FRONT AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING ELEVATED STORMS. FORECAST
HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT ACROSS THIS AREA WITH
SUFFICIENT /I.E. 30-40 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT
ROTATING/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND A RELATIVELY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SETUP
WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND
LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
..MEAD/BOTHWELL.. 10/10/2010
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