SWODY1
SPC AC 101610
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
VALID 101630Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF CENTRAL/WRN OK AND
NWRN TX...
...SRN PLAINS...
WHILE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL NEB WILL SHIFT SLOWLY SSEWD TODAY...A
VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED LARGE SCALE ASCENT VICINITY SWRN KS/OK AREA
IS SPREADING EWD AND SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ELEVATED CONVECTION.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS MARGINAL WITH PWAT GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE INCH
ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING OUTSIDE OF THIS MORNING CONVECTION
AND 30-40KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...STILL APPEARS FAVORABLE FOR A
SEVERE THREAT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE BAND OF ELEVATED TSTMS THIS MORNING OVER THE OK
PNHDL INTO NRN OK WITHIN A ZONE OF LOWER TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND DCVA IN ADVANCE OF LEAD VORTICITY MAXIMUM
EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED STORMS
ACROSS SRN KS/NRN OK TODAY WHERE ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER S/SW WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR...MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000
J/KG BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON.
THE MORE ROBUST...SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BETWEEN
10/21Z-11/00Z FROM CNTRL OK SWWD INTO NWRN TX ALONG DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING ZONE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING ELEVATED
STORMS. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS INDICATE VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT
ACROSS THIS AREA WITH SUFFICIENT /I.E. 30-40 KT/ DEEP-LAYER SHEAR TO
SUPPORT ROTATING/LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS. WHEN COUPLED WITH THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES...DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG...A RELATIVELY DEEP AND
WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...SETUP WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
..HALES/GARNER.. 10/10/2010
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