SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102012
OKZ000-TXZ000-102145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1941
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0312 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN/CNTRL OK AND PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 102012Z - 102145Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATION IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE OVER SWRN OK AND PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX BY 23Z...AND THEN MOVE
DOWNSTREAM INTO CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK DURING THE EARLY NIGHT. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.
A CLOSED MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO RESIDE OVER THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH AN IMPULSE CURRENTLY ROUNDING ITS BASE OVER THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS. THIS IMPULSE HAS FOCUSED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NWRN/N-CNTRL OK DURING MUCH OF THE DAY...LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A PRONOUNCED SURFACE COLD POOL OVER THE AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
ACCOMPANYING THE COLD POOL WAS LOCATED NEAR OKC AT 20Z...AND
EXTENDED WSW ALONG A LINE TOWARD CSM AND THEN W TO 50 N OF CDS. S OF
THIS BOUNDARY...A WEAK N-S ORIENTED SURFACE PRESSURE TROUGH WAS
ANALYZED OVER W TX. OVER THE WARM SECTOR...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
SWRN/CNTRL/S-CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL TX HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID 80S
F...WHILE A TONGUE OF MID 50S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAS BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION. A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
/AOA 7.5 C PER KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ HAS OVERSPREAD THIS
SURFACE AIR MASS...WHICH IS AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE
VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG.
RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND SFCOA GUIDANCE ALSO SHOW LARGE CINH
VALUES /AOA 50 J PER KG/ LOCATED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH
ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TOWARD 22-23Z...POSSIBLY IN
RESPONSE TO PEAK SURFACE HEATING AND MODEST ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SRN
HIGH PLAINS TROUGH AXIS. THIS DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE
BOUNDARIES WILL FAVOR AN INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. AREA PROFILER/VWP DATA
INDICATES SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /AROUND 35 KT OF
0-6 KM SHEAR/ FOR PERSISTENT/ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL
EXIST...IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
..GARNER.. 10/10/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 33589756 33419926 33840031 34860034 35569963 35919824
35799659 35079627 34329655 33589756
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