SWODY1
SPC AC 110053
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0753 PM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
VALID 110100Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SRN
PLAINS FROM NWRN TX TO SWRN OK...
...NW TX TO SW OK...
ZONE OF FOCUSED DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF A STRONG
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING SWD ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT. QG-FORCING ALONG SRN FLANK OF THE LOW WILL SUPPORT A BROKEN
BAND OF SURFACE-BASED DEEP CONVECTION FROM NWRN TX NEWD ACROSS THE
RED RIVER INTO OK. A SMALL MCS WILL ALSO BE SUSTAINED ATOP A MORE
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS FAR NERN OK AND SERN KS THIS EVENING.
THE MOST CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH REGARD TO
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR...APPEARS TO BE WELL SAMPLED BY 00 UTC OUN
RAOB WHICH SHOWS PRE-STORM MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG AND
SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT. THESE INGREDIENTS WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR
SUSTAINED STORM UPDRAFTS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGER SCALE LIFT
TO PERSIST ACROSS THIS AREA TONIGHT. SPC HAILCAST FROM THE OUN
OBSERVED SOUNDING RESULTS IN A HAILSTONE SIZE OF 1.5 INCHES AND
CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST IS HEIGHTENED BY RECENT STORM REPORTS
FROM WEST OF THE CNTRL OK AREA.
RELATIVELY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD AIRMASS COULD ALSO RESULT IN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE GRADUALLY EWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
...ELSEWHERE...
SPORADIC TSTMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE PLAINS UPPER
LOW...FROM ERN WY/NERN CO TO NWRN KS AND CNTRL NEB. HOWEVER...EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS LIFT WITH A COLD
FRONT ENCOUNTERS WEAK INSTABILITY...AND A DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY
LAYER...FROM ERN ORE INTO WRN ID OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
..CARBIN.. 10/11/2010
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