SWODY3
SPC AC 100730
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT SUN OCT 10 2010
VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
SRN PLAINS UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO AN OPEN WAVE AND
DEAMPLIFY AS IT BECOMES LOOSELY PHASED WITH NRN STREAM IMPULSE AND
BEGINS TO ACCELERATE THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND SERN STATES. A
COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE SEWD THROUGH ERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. GFS AND ECWMF ARE FASTER THAN THE NAM AND
WILL LEAN TOWARD THOSE SOLUTIONS THIS FORECAST.
...ERN TX THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION...
SOME CONVECTION MAY STILL BE IN PROGRESS EARLY TUESDAY FROM ERN TX
INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. AXIS OF 50S TO 60S DEWPOINTS WILL
RESIDE AHEAD OF SEWD ADVANCING FRONT BENEATH COLD AIR ALOFT WITH -14
TO -16C AT 500 MB ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. WHERE DIABATIC
WARMING OCCURS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE POSSIBLE. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW RELATIVELY SHALLOW CAPE NEAR THE GULF COAST DUE TO
WARMER AIR ALOFT WITH SWD EXTENT FROM UPPER LOW CENTER WHERE BELT OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL RESIDE. WEAKER FLOW WILL EXIST FARTHER
NORTH THROUGH THE LOWER MS VALLEY IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO UPPER LOW
CENTER. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS DESPITE RELATIVELY WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR. WILL
INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE CATEGORICAL RISK FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA
IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 10/10/2010
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment