SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262155
INZ000-ILZ000-262330-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0600
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 PM CDT THU APR 26 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IL AND WRN IND
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 262155Z - 262330Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS ERN IL AND WRN IND
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. HOWEVER...THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT WW ISSUANCE.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1002 MB LOW CENTERED OVER FAR NE IL WITH
A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD ACROSS WRN IND INTO WRN KY. AT
UPPER-LEVELS...A LOW CENTER IS EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
FAR ERN IA WITH A POCKET OF COLD AIR ALOFT /500 MB TEMPS AROUND -18
C/ LOCATED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE UPPER-LOW. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT THAT STEEP...THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL
FORMATION IN THE STRONGER CELLS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ON OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS CURRENTLY
RANGE FROM 7.0 TO 8.0 C/KM AND THIS MAY BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR A
MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT WITH THE MORE ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS.
ANY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL AND SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY
AS THE SUN SETS THIS EVENING.
.BROYLES.. 04/26/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
38678629 38608803 39428892 40408878 40968824 41198700
41008622 40298540 39178541
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