SWOD48
SPC AC 260854
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007
VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
..DISCUSSION...
MODELS SIMILAR IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD WITH EVOLVING PATTERN TO AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MUCH OF THE WRN
TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTRY. LITTLE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST WITH THIS PATTERN. BEYOND THIS TIME...MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE...BUT CONSENSUS IS THAT PATTERN WILL DEAMPLIFY WITH MAIN
BELT OF WLY BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY.
THERE IS POSSIBILITY THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO THIS
REGION BY 04/28 AND CONTRIBUTE TO SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
SEVERAL SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO ADVANCE EAST THROUGH
THE PLAINS AND SERN STATES. BY DAY 7-8 THE UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST
BY THE ECMWF AND THE MRF TO UNDERGO AMPLIFICATION ONCE AGAIN. GIVEN
THE HIGHLY TRANSITIONAL NATURE OF OVERALL PATTERN WHICH LOWERS
PREDICTABILITY... WILL NOT INCLUDE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME.
.DIAL.. 04/26/2007
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