SWODY3
SPC AC 260701
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0201 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007
VALID 281200Z - 291200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON DAY 3 IN EVOLUTION OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS ON DAY 2. WILL LEAN TOWARD GFS
WHICH IS HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT AND IS THE HPC MODEL OF CHOICE
WITH THIS FEATURE. THE GFS SUGGEST THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE
ABSORBED WITHIN THE BROADER U.S. TROUGH AND CONTINUE SEWD THROUGH
THE SERN STATES WHILE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SWD THROUGH TX.
OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE
EAST WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES THIS PERIOD.
..S CNTRL THROUGH S TX...
MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR
OVER S TX. HOWEVER...WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSING WELL N OF THIS
AREA...WEAK BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW/CONVERGENCE AND MODEST DEEP LAYER
FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY LIMIT INITIATION POTENTIAL ALONG THE FRONT.
WILL INCLUDE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR ANY STORMS THAT MIGHT
DEVELOP ON COLD FRONT ACROSS S CNTRL THROUGH S TX. HOWEVER...GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING STORM INITIATION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS...WILL NOT INTRODUCE A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS
TIME.
..TN VALLEY...
OTHER MORE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITHIN ZONE OF
ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY
SHOULD BE TOO LIMITED FOR A SEVERE THREAT.
.DIAL.. 04/26/2007
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