SWODY1
SPC AC 261629
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1129 AM CDT THU APR 26 2007
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
..THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH AND UPR TN VLYS
INTO WV/VA/NC...AND PARTS OF AL/FL/GA....
..SYNOPSIS...
MO UPR LOW EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT EDGES E/NE TOWARD CHI THIS
EVENING AND TO NEAR LK HURON EARLY FRIDAY. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED SFC
LOW NOW IN WRN IL SHOULD REDEVELOP E/NE TO THE IL/IND BORDER THIS
EVENING BEFORE TURNING MORE NE INTO LWR MI TONIGHT. A SERIES OF
WEAK CONFLUENCE AXES/COLD FRONTS TRAILING GENERALLY S FROM THE LOW
WILL ROTATE E/NE ACROSS THE OH VLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE WARM
FRONT LIFTS N TO SRN LWR MI/OH/WV AND SRN VA.
..OH/ERN TN VLYS THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING...
BROAD DRY SLOT OF MO UPR LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E/NE ACROSS THE
OH VLY TODAY...ENHANCING DESTABILIZATION OF MODERATELY MOIST WARM
SECTOR. SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CONFLUENCE AXES
IN THE LWR OH VLY SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERCOME MODEST CIN TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON. STORMS MAY ALSO FORM IN AREA OF STRONGER CONVERGENCE
ALONG AND N OF WARM FRONT ACROSS NRN IL/NRN IND AND LWR MI.
ALTHOUGH SBCAPE SHOULD REMAIN AOB 1000 J/KG...7C/KM LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES...COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 40+ KT DEEP SSWLY
SHEAR APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR BANDS OF SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS WITH
HAIL. LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD REMAIN VEERED TO SSWLY...BUT WILL BE
STRONG ENOUGH TO BOOST 0-1 KM SRH TO 100-200 M2/S2. THIS SUGGESTS
THE POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE TORNADOES GIVEN SUPPORTIVE STORM
MODE/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL STORM
ROTATION WILL ALSO BE ENHANCED NEAR WARM FRONT...ALTHOUGH EXPECTED
STORM MOTION SHOULD CARRY STORMS FAIRLY QUICKLY TO COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY.
..SERN STATES TODAY...
SQLN NOW ENTERING THE WRN FL PANHANDLE SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E
ACROSS THE PANHANDLE AND SE AL...WHERE SFC HEATING COULD YIELD SOME
INTENSIFICATION BY AFTERNOON. NEW DEVELOPMENT COULD ALSO OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE LN IN WRN GA. BUT GRADUAL NEWD WITHDRAWAL OF STRONGER
WIND FIELD/UPR SUPPORT...VEERED LOW LEVEL WIND...AND WARM LAYER
AROUND 700 MB SUGGEST THAT SVR THREAT WILL BE LIMITED.
NEVERTHELESS...GIVEN RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INFLOW AND 40+ KT DEEP
SWLY SHEAR...POTENTIAL WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW EMBEDDED ROTATING
STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO.
..MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTN/EVE...
AREA ALONG AND JUST W/S OF WARM FRONT ACROSS WV/VA/NE NC MAY SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AS HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO 1000
J/KG BENEATH 50+ KT SWLY MID LEVEL FLOW. COUPLED WITH DEEPLY MIXED
ENVIRONMENT S OF FRONT...SETUP WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR A
FEW STRONG/SVR TSTMS. UPR LEVEL FORCING WILL... HOWEVER...BE
WEAK...AS WILL MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THUS... PROSPECTS FOR STORM
INITIATION ARE LOW. IF STORMS DO FORM... PRIMARY SVR CONCERN WOULD
LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN RELATIVELY LARGE SUB-CLOUD T/TD
SPREADS AND MODERATELY STRONG WIND FIELD. A LIMITED THREAT WOULD
ALSO EXIST FOR TORNADOES IN IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF FRONT.
.CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 04/26/2007
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