DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 061242
SWODY1
SPC AC 061241

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0641 AM CST THU MAR 06 2014

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN AND CNTRL FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR 48 THROUGH FRI. SRN
STREAM LOW NOW OVER THE ARKLATEX SHOULD CONTINUE ESE INTO SRN MS BY
THIS EVE...BEFORE TURNING E INTO CNTRL GA EARLY FRI. THE LOW IS
PRECEDED BY SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES THAT WILL CONTINUE TO
DEAMPLIFY IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW OVER THE ERN GULF OF MEXICO AND
FL. SCTD TO NUMEROUS TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SVR...WILL CROSS
CNTRL AND SRN FL LATER TODAY THROUGH EARLY TNGT AS BOTH THE LEAD
DISTURBANCES AND THE MAIN TROUGH IMPACT THE FL PENINSULA.

ELSEWHERE...UPSTREAM SRN BRANCH TROUGH NOW APPROACHING THE W CST
WILL REACH NRN CA/SRN ORE THIS AFTN AND THE NRN GRT BASIN EARLY
FRI...ACCOMPANIED BY A RISK FOR SCTD...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS.

...FL TODAY/TNGT...
LATEST SFC DATA PLACE SFC LOW ATTENDANT TO ARKLATEX UPR SYSTEM OVER
THE N CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO ATTM...WITH STNRY FRONT EXTENDING ESE
FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE ERN GULF AND THE FL PENINSULA A LITTLE N OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT NWD INTO CNTRL FL LATER
TODAY IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADUAL DEEPENING OF THE SFC LOW AND TO THE
CONTINUED AMPLIFICATION/CONSOLIDATION OF ARKLATEX UPR TROUGH.

LOW-LVL WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF LEAD UPR IMPULSES...AND
UPLIFT ALONG EXISTING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...HAVE SUPPORTED
A ROBUST SW-NE ORIENTED MCS OVER THE ERN GULF OVERNIGHT. THIS
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE GENERALLY ESE THROUGH MIDDAY. EMBEDDED
FORWARD-PROPAGATING LINE SEGMENTS/LOW AMPLITUDE LEWPS AND BOWS MAY
BRING A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DMGG WIND TO THE W CST OF FL NEAR TAMPA
BY MIDDAY. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY FORM AROUND THAT TIME OR A BIT
LATER FARTHER S AND E OVER THE FL PENINSULA AS DIURNAL HEATING AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES REDISTRIBUTE LOW-LVL
CONVERGENCE FIELDS OVER THE REGION.

AMPLE /40 TO 60 KT/ 700-500 MB WSWLY FLOW WILL EXIST IN THE WARM
SECTOR TO SUPPORT SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN PRESENCE OF
FAIRLY RICH MOISTURE /PW AROUND 1.75 INCHES/...THE LIKELIHOOD FOR AT
LEAST MODEST SFC HEATING...AND MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J/KG.
FARTHER N...A CORRIDOR OF ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR/ISOLD TORNADO
POTENTIAL MAY DEVELOP ALONG STNRY/WARM FRONT OVER THE CNTRL PART OF
THE PENINSULA...WHERE SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID/UPR LVL FLOW ALSO WILL
EXIST. BUT THE STRONGEST/MOST SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS MAY OCCUR OVER THE
SRN THIRD OF THE STATE...WHERE THE GREATEST BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP.
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...BOTH EMBEDDED IN LINE
SEGMENTS/LEWPS AND ALONG SEA-BREEZE AND/OR DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
BOUNDARIES...OVERALL SETUP COULD YIELD A TORNADO OR TWO IN ADDITION
TO A FEW SWATHS OF DMGG WIND.

THE SVR THREAT SHOULD BE GREATEST THIS AFTN/EARLY TNGT...AND
DIMINISH AS THE UPR SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
REFORMS NEWD OFF THE GA CST LATER TNGT/EARLY FRI.

..CORFIDI/MARSH.. 03/06/2014

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