DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 060600
SWODY1
SPC AC 060558

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1158 PM CST WED MAR 05 2014

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY 1 FORECAST PERIOD. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ESEWD TOWARD THE
LOWER MS VALLEY PRIOR TO THE START OF DAY 1 IS EXPECTED TO REACH
SERN MS/SRN AL INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BY 07/00Z...AND THEN THE
ATTENDANT CLOSED LOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH THE SERN STATES /GA
TO FAR N FL/ BY 12Z FRI. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS TROUGH ARE EXPECTED
TO BE STRONGEST OVER N FL DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TODAY /500 MB
HEIGHT FALLS OF 60 METERS/...WITH RELATIVELY WEAKER FALLS OVER THE
SRN HALF OF FL /20-30 METERS/. STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD OCCUR
FROM GA INTO FL TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE
SERN STATES TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRI MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SHOULD BE LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL-NERN GULF
AT 12Z TODAY...WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL
ALONG A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO EXTEND ROUGHLY FROM 10 N PIE TO 40 N
MLB THIS AFTERNOON. A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL REACH CENTRAL FL BY
EARLY EVENING AND THEN ADVANCE ACROSS MUCH OF S FL BY LATE TONIGHT.

IN THE WEST...A TROUGH...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL PROCEED INLAND ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/FOUR CORNERS REGION.

...FL PENINSULA...
A PAIR OF LEAD IMPULSES...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL-NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO AND THE SECOND LOCATED IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM
AND NOW MOVING INTO THE NWRN GULF PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL
EACH PROVIDE ASCENT FOR TSTMS TO LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER THE CENTRAL
AND ERN GULF AT 12Z TODAY. SOME OF THESE STORMS SHOULD ALSO EXTEND
NWD TO ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NERN GULF COAST TO THE NORTH OF THE
SURFACE WARM FRONT.

THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE DEGREE OF
DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA
TODAY. WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN CLOUDINESS
ATTENDANT TO GULF OF MEXICO TSTMS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF FL THROUGH TODAY INTO THE EVENING. GIVEN THIS
FACTOR...MODELS SUGGEST S FL SHOULD HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR AT
LEAST SOME SURFACE HEATING THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...
GIVEN LESS CLOUDINESS DURING THE START OF THE DIURNAL SURFACE
HEATING CYCLE. DESPITE MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AT LEAST SOME
SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS S FL WILL CONTRIBUTE TO GREATER INSTABILITY /MUCAPE
AROUND 1000 J PER KG/. FARTHER N ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN FL...MORE
CLOUDINESS SHOULD INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING WITH MUCAPE TO AROUND 500
J/KG ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA...IN VICINITY AND S OF THE SURFACE
LOW TRACK. THE CLOUDINESS/PRECIPITATION ACROSS N FL MAY TEND TO
INHIBIT THE NWD RETURN OF A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO ADVANCE THROUGH
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...REACHING N CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON.

DESPITE THE REMAINING UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL DESTABILIZATION...
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS
SOUTH INTO CENTRAL FL. THIS THREAT SHOULD OCCUR WITHIN THREE
REGIMES 1/ INVOF A LOW LEVEL PRE-COLD FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ZONE
EXTENDING S-N THROUGH THE CENTER PART OF S FL WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR...2/ INVOF THE WARM FRONT AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND
3/ ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES INTO THE NRN PART OF THE SLIGHT
RISK BY 07/00Z AND ACROSS S FL THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE LOW ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FL...LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO VEER SOME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. HOWEVER...FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST...EVEN WITH THE VEERING...STRENGTHENING LOWER-MID LEVEL
WINDS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE
IN SFC-1 KM SHEAR WITH THE BEST LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE
EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COAST. THUS...GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS WITH PERHAPS A THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO WHERE LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ARE MAXIMIZED. DESPITE WEAK TO MODEST
MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10 TO -12 C
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME HAIL THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS S FL WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST.

...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO NRN GREAT BASIN...
THE STRONGEST HEIGHT FALLS AT 500 MB ATTENDANT TO THE PACIFIC TROUGH
SHOULD TRACK SEWD ACROSS ID/NRN NV AND UT TODAY...REACHING THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. A FEW TSTMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TRACK OF THE COLDEST 500-MB TEMPERATURES /-22
TO -26 C/ ATTENDANT TO THE PACIFIC TROUGH.

..PETERS/MOSIER.. 03/06/2014

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