SWODY1
SPC AC 050057
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 PM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009
VALID 050100Z - 051200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...GULF COAST STATES...
ROUGHLY WEST-EAST WARM/MARINE FRONT WILL REMAIN ALONG THE GULF COAST
STATES THROUGH TONIGHT AS AN EMBEDDED/SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE
SPREADS EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN ADDITION TO A
TENDENCY FOR RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODEST BUOYANCY INLAND AND/OR MODEST DEEP LAYER/LOW LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE A CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISK.
NONETHELESS...WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL WIND/TORNADO PROBABILITIES
MAINLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE GULF COASTAL AREAS.
...NORTHEAST UT/NORTHWEST CO INTO WY...
AS A COLD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE GREAT
BASIN...COOL THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT/STEEP LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT
IN SOME HAIL YET THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION...WITH THE 00Z GRAND
JUNCTION OBSERVED RAOB INDICATIVE OF AROUND 600 J/KG OF MUCAPE.
HOWEVER...MARGINAL BUOYANCY/LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING IS SUGGESTIVE OF
WANING POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND/OR CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED WIND GUSTS TO
SEVERE LEVELS.
..GUYER.. 10/05/2009
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