SWODY3
SPC AC 040729
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT SUN OCT 04 2009
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...SYNOPSIS...
WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW LINGERS/DRIFTS SSEWD OVER CA AND THE
ADJACENT ERN PACIFIC...A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO
CROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S./UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE PERIOD...AND THEN INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION.
A SURFACE LOW IS PROGGED TO TAKE A SIMILAR COURSE...WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE QUICKLY EWD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY
REGION...BUT MORE SLOWLY SEWD/SWD ACROSS THE TN AND LOWER MS VALLEYS
AND TX THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
...MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS SWWD ACROSS NE TX...
PRECIPITATION/EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE
START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS...AND SHOULD
SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES EWD.
SOME DESTABILIZATION WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN
VALLEY REGION SWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES AND WWD INTO TX...WHICH
SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SEWD/SWD ACROSS THIS AREA.
AS THE FRONT BECOMES MORE ENE-WSW ORIENTED WITH TIME...STRONGER FLOW
WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE FRONT.
THUS...SHEAR ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BE GENERALLY MODEST.
THIS COMBINED WITH LIMITED DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED INVOF THE FRONT
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL AT BEST. WILL
INTRODUCE 5% SEVERE PROBABILITY INVOF THE FRONT TO COVER THIS
POTENTIAL...BUT EXPECT ONLY LOW-END/ISOLATED SEVERE ATTM.
..GOSS.. 10/04/2009
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