DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 080610
SWODY1
SPC AC 080607

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0107 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH/LOW INITIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS WILL MOVE
NEWD WITH TIME...EVOLVING INTO MORE OF A CLOSED LOW OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
FLOW PATTERN OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY...AS A TROUGH DEEPENS OFF THE WRN NOAM COAST AND DOWNSTREAM
RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE ROCKIES.

AT THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE MS
VALLEY/MIDWEST THROUGH 09/12Z.

..GREAT LAKES EWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND/NRN NJ...
THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SSWWD INTO OK WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS
THE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD WITH
TIME.

STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY LOCALLY...AS PRE-FRONTAL
AIRMASS UNDERGOES MARGINAL AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION.
HOWEVER...ALONG WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY...STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WIND
FIELD WILL REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE FRONT...RESULTING
IN AN ENVIRONMENT LIKELY TO SUPPORT ONLY A MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT. A
FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS OR LINE SEGMENTS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF/LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINAL HAIL DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FURTHER E...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE/SPREAD ESEWD ACROSS THE
LOWER LAKES AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND VICINITY...INVOF WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THIS AREA. WHILE
MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WNWLY DEEP-LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST
ACROSS THIS REGION...QUESTIONS EXIST REGARDING POSSIBLE DEGREE OF
AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE
PROBABILITY...THOUGH AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN LATER FORECASTS IF IT APPEARS THAT AIRMASS
WILL DESTABILIZE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

.GOSS.. 10/08/2007

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