DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 080542
SWODY2
SPC AC 080540

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1240 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL TAKE ON
EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS AS IT EJECTS NEWD AND CLOSES
OFF OVER UPPER GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
SHIFT SEWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY WITH RESULTING SUPPRESSION AND
RETROGRESSION OF SERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW WILL
HAVE OCCLUDED OVER SRN ONTARIO WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SWD
INTO THE GREAT LAKES...TRANSITIONING TO A COLD FRONT FROM THE OH
VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS. A NW-SE QUASISTATIONARY FRONT WILL
PERSIST OVER NY AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
SEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. FARTHER WEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY INTO THE
PACIFIC NW REGION.

..CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC REGION...

AN AXIS OF MID TO UPPER 60S LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR OVER PARTS OF THE APPALACHIANS AND MID
ATLANTIC REGION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AS THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WARMS...BUT WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS
OF CLOUDS WILL LIMIT MLCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG. SCATTERED STORMS
WILL INCREASE ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT ADVANCES EWD.
THE UPPER TROUGH AND STRONGER MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL LAG BEHIND
THE SURFACE FRONT RESULTING IN RELATIVELY MODEST 20 TO 30 KT WLY
DEEP LAYER FLOW IN WARM SECTOR WITH LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE.
THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL STORMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL EVOLVE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS OR CLUSTERS. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS...LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A THREAT OF
ISOLATED WET MICRO-BURSTS. POTENTIAL FOR HEATING MAY BE A LITTLE
BETTER EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS WHERE SOME DOWN-SLOPING MAY OCCUR.
AT THIS TIME...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN
5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

.DIAL.. 10/08/2007

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