SWOD48
SPC AC 080754
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0254 AM CDT MON OCT 08 2007
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
..DISCUSSION...
OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
EAST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES OVER MOST
OF THE GULF THROUGH ABOUT DAY 4. BY DAY 5 SURFACE RIDGE MAY HAVE
SHIFTED FAR ENOUGH EAST TO ALLOW AN AXIS OF PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF
AIR TO BEGIN RETURNING NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS.
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ADVANCE
INTO THE SRN ROCKIES OR SRN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE DAY 6 WITH THE ECMWF
AND GFS BEING FASTER THAN MOST OF THE MREF MEMBERS. OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES OVER THE CNTRL AND ERN GULF WOULD LIMIT QUALITY OF
MOISTURE RETURN THROUGH TX. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD RETURN IN A NARROW AXIS IN ADVANCE OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT OVER PARTS OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS BY
LATE DAY 6 INTO DAY 7. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND QUALITY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN...WILL OPT TO
NOT INCLUDE A RISK AREA AT THIS TIME. IF MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
CONVERGE AND SHOW A TREND OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...A RISK AREA
MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE OUTLOOKS.
.DIAL.. 10/08/2007
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