SWOD48
SPC AC 310817
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0317 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 031200Z - 081200Z
..SEVERE POTENTIAL LOW INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
THE SPREAD AMONG MREF MEMBERS GROWS RATHER LARGE BEYOND THIS
WEEKEND. BUT...THE 31/00Z GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THAT
SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION WILL OCCUR WITHIN LARGE SCALE TROUGH EAST
OF THE ROCKIES...EARLY THIS WEEKEND...AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LATTER
AMPLIFICATION. HOWEVER...MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD BE WEAK...LIKELY
LIMITED TO A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS EMANATING FROM THE NORTHERN
MEXICAN PLATEAU/LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS COULD BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OZARKS
INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS NEXT MONDAY INTO EARLY NEXT TUESDAY.
BUT...WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
MINOR SEVERE THREAT AT BEST.
.KERR.. 10/31/2007
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