SWODY2
SPC AC 310500
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 011200Z - 021200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IMPULSES WILL REMAIN
PROGRESSIVE WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERN BRANCH OF THE POLAR
WESTERLIES NEAR THE CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER DURING THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. ONE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...AS ANOTHER DIGS FROM THE LEE OF THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL/CANADIAN U.S. BORDER AREA. AT THE
SAME TIME...WITHIN THE WEAKER SOUTHERN STREAM...A COUPLE OF LOWER
AMPLITUDE TROUGHS ARE PROGGED TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
TIER STATES...INCLUDING ONE EXPECTED TO REACH THE EASTERN GULF
COAST/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES BY 12Z FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT A WEAK SUBTROPICAL IMPULSE
WILL LIFT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AND...AS THIS
OCCURS...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL PROBABLY FINALLY ACCELERATE
NORTHEAST OF THE BAHAMAS.
..SOUTHEASTERN STATES...
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING THE TRACK OF NOEL...IT
APPEARS MOST PROBABLE THAT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE IN THE
PROCESS OF VEERING AWAY FROM SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY
APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT TO SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS.
..REMAINDER OF THE U.S...
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PROGRESSION OF STRONGER POLAR TROUGHS...ONE
LARGE COLD SURFACE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO RETREAT THROUGH THE CENTRAL/
EASTERN STATES...AS ANOTHER BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION/ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO A GENERALLY STABLE THERMODYNAMIC
STRATIFICATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NATION...WITH NEGLIGIBLE RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
.KERR.. 10/31/2007
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