SWODY1
SPC AC 311219
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0719 AM CDT WED OCT 31 2007
VALID 311300Z - 011200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SYNOPSIS...
STRONG AND PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH TODAY WITH STRONG MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS
SPREADING OVER QUEBEC AND THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENSIVE SURFACE COLD FRONT ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING
EAST/SOUTHEAST...FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY THIS MORNING...TO NEW
ENGLAND AND THE APPALACHIANS BY TOMORROW MORNING. TRAILING PORTION
OF THE FRONT...NOW SWEEPING SOUTH THROUGH THE TX/OK PLAINS...WILL
CONTINUE SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN HIGH PLAINS OF TX AND EXTEND EWD
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
T.S. NOEL IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE A SLOW NWWD PROGRESSION TOWARD
SOUTH FL TODAY BEFORE RE-CURVING NWD. RECENT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF NOEL SUGGESTS IMPROVED PROSPECTS FOR
SCATTERED TSTMS ON THE FRINGE OF THE T.S. TO MAKE IT INTO PARTS OF
SOUTH FL TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY.
..FL...
WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES ACROSS SE FL
THIS PERIOD WITH NOEL REMAINING OFFSHORE. DESPITE THE EVENTUAL NWD
TRACK KEEPING THE CENTER OF NOEL WELL OFFSHORE...THERE REMAINS A
REMOTE POSSIBILITY THAT FEEDER BAND CONVECTION...WITH ISOLATED
STRONGER UPDRAFTS...COULD CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
..CO...
LOW STATIC STABILITY...DIURNAL HEATING...AND FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON TSTMS
OVER WRN CO.
.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 10/31/2007
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