MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1682

ACUS11 KWNS 220010
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220010
SDZ000-NEZ000-KSZ000-COZ000-220145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1682
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0710 PM CDT THU JUL 21 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NW KS...FAR ERN CO...WCNTRL NEB AND SRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 220010Z - 220145Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE CNTRL
HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FROM FAR ERN CO EWD ACROSS NW KS AND SRN NEB
WHERE MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY. FURTHER TO THE NORTH...THE
SEVERE THREAT MAY REMAIN VERY ISOLATED BUT HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING IN SE CO ALONG THE WRN
EDGE OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO INCREASING INSTABILITY AND AS THE
LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
AHEAD OF THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE MCS...MESOANALYSIS SHOW MLCAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE ACROSS NW KS AND UP TO 3500
J/KG ACROSS SRN NEB. IN ADDITION...WSR-88D VWPS IN NW KS AND SRN NEB
SHOW 20 TO 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH ALONG WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT.
ALTHOUGH THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT MULTICELLULAR
CONVECTION...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE MCS SHOULD
CONTAIN A THREAT FOR WIND DAMAGE.

FURTHER NORTH ACROSS NRN NEB AND SRN SD...0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE
ESTIMATED BY THE RAPID CITY WSR-88D VWP TO AROUND 50 KT. THIS SHOULD
SUPPORT SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT BUT STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN MORE ISOLATED THAN AREAS TO THE SOUTH. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IF ROTATING STORMS CAN PERSIST IN THE
MID-EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 07/22/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...GID...LBF...DDC...UNR...GLD...PUB...
BOU...

LAT...LON 38900015 40079980 41039970 42359943 43849950 44310005
44330102 43980160 43360181 42750194 42160205 41270214
40200231 38810245 38310188 38260089 38900015

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