SWOD48
SPC AC 190958
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0358 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011
VALID 221200Z - 271200Z
...DISCUSSION...
A SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO DAY 4 BEFORE THE
TRANSITION INTO A MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED REGIME. GIVEN COMPLEX NATURE
OF PATTERN WITH INTERACTIONS BETWEEN NRN AND SRN STREAM
WAVES...PREDICTABILITY REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW AS REFLECTED BY
DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...ESPECIALLY BEYOND DAY 5.
DAY 4...SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS MOVING SWD THROUGH THE WRN U.S. IS
FORECAST TO TURN SEWD INTO NRN MEXICO WEDNESDAY BEFORE DEAMPLIFYING
AS IT EJECTS THROUGH THE LOWER MS...TN AND OH VALLEYS THURSDAY. THE
GULF BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE UNDERGONE FURTHER MODIFICATION DUE TO
LACK OF FRONTAL INTRUSIONS. MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT GULF MOISTURE
WILL ACCELERATE NWD AHEAD OF THE IMPULSE INTO SRN PORTIONS OF GULF
COAST STATES CONTRIBUTING TO POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION. DEGREE
OF MOISTURE RETURN WILL IN PART DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF EJECTING
TROUGH AND HOW RAPIDLY IT UNDERGOES DEAMPLIFICATION...WHICH WILL
AFFECT CYCLOGENESIS AND STRENGTH OF LLJ. SOME THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS MAY TRANSPIRE OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF COASTAL STATES
THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT SUFFICIENT TO DELINEATE 30% SEVERE
COVERAGE AT THIS TIME. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND
SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE INTRODUCED IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..DIAL.. 12/19/2011
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