DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 190818
SWODY3
SPC AC 190816

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 211200Z - 221200Z

...SYNOPSIS...

CUTOFF UPPER LOW OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL DEAMPLIFY FURTHER AS IT
EJECTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OH VALLEY AND THE NERN STATES
WEDNESDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES WILL BOTTOM OUT OVER NRN MEXICO BEFORE
MOVING THROUGH TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF IMPULSES
ADVANCES SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL
ACCOMPANY THE LEAD IMPULSE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD...BUT SWRN
PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY AND EXTEND
SWWD THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES.

...SERN STATES...

A MARGINAL RISK OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OR A TORNADO MAY PERSIST
EARLY WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL
AND NRN AL INTO NWRN GA. ACTIVITY WILL EXIST WITHIN STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY. TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THE STRONGER LOW
LEVEL SHEAR AND FORCING TO SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM THE MOIST WARM
SECTOR AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE OH VALLEY. THE STRONGER FLOW AND LARGER HODOGRAPHS WILL DEVELOP
TOWARD THE CAROLINAS AND MID ATLANTIC DURING THE DAY WHERE INFLUX OF
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PROBABLY REMAIN TOO LIMITED FOR A
SEVERE THREAT.

...TX...

CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM PORTIONS OF SERN TX INTO THE
LOWER MS VALLEY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASING
FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDING THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF
ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WHERE LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2011

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