DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 190702
SWODY2
SPC AC 190700

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0100 AM CST MON DEC 19 2011

VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AREA...

..SYNOPSIS...

SPLIT FLOW SYNOPTIC REGIME WILL PERSIST THROUGH DAY 2. CUTOFF LOW
OVER AZ HAS BEGUN TO ACCELERATE ENEWD AS OF SUNDAY EVENING IN
RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM VORT MAX DROPPING SWD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW.
THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY THEN
INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS TUESDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC
LOW. TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE LOWER MS AND TN
VALLEYS.

...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH A PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

STRONG MIGRATORY SLY LLJ WILL ADVECT PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR
WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES PRE-FRONTAL WARM
SECTOR WITH 50S LIKELY FARTHER NORTH INTO THE TN VALLEY. LIKELIHOOD
OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND MODEST LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT MLCAPE TO
GENERALLY AOB 500 J/KG WITH GREATEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER SRN
HALF OF THE GULF COAST STATES. BASED ON FORECAST TRACK OF EJECTING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH...TENDENCY WILL BE FOR LLJ AND STRONGER FORCING TO
SHIFT NEWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION WILL SHOULD BE MORE LIMITED. BANDS OF STORMS WILL BE
ONGOING ALONG WARM CONVEYOR EARLY TUESDAY FROM ERN TX INTO THE LOWER
MS VALLEY. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN
WEAKLY CAPPED SECTOR OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE GREATER INFLUX
OF MOISTURE WILL PROMOTE A BETTER CHANCE FOR SURFACE BASED STORMS.
LARGEST HODOGRAPHS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM NRN PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AND TN AND OH VALLEYS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...SOMEWHAT
REMOVED FROM THE GREATER INSTABILITY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE
BEST SHEAR/INSTABILITY PARAMETER SPACE AND BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
STORMS MAY TRANSPIRE IN CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL/NRN MS INTO SWRN TN AND
NWRN AL. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND ALONG WITH A
CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES.

..DIAL.. 12/19/2011

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