SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252043
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-252315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0271
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NCNTRL/NERN TX...SCNTRL/SERN OK...SWRN AR AND
EXTREME NRN LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 252043Z - 252315Z
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DEEPENING CUMULUS FIELD
ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR OVER SCNTRL/SERN OK AND NCNTRL TX.
HOWEVER...RIDGE/ANTICYCLONIC CHARACTER TO HIGH-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
OVER THE REGION AND LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL
PROBABLY BE DETRIMENTAL TO SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL
AFTER 23Z OR SO. THEREAFTER...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPSTREAM TROUGH AND THE PRE-EXISTING WARM BOUNDARY LAYER MAY BECOME
SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR INITIATION. THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH
EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT LATEST RUC/GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS FOR AT LEAST
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT AND SWD ALONG THE
DRYLINE FROM SCNTRL OK INTO NCNTRL TX NEAR SUNSET WHERE NRN-EXTENT
OF 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES WILL EXIST.
SHOULD A STORM FORM...ROUGHLY 45-50 KTS OF LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 DEG C PER
KM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL.
A SUSTAINED SURFACE-BASED STORM EVOLVING ALONG/N OF THE RED RIVER
NEAR A WARM FRONT COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO OR TWO...BUT THE HAIL RISK
WILL DOMINATE.
OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE AND/OR DEVELOP
ALONG/N OF THE WARM FRONT AS ELEVATED ENTITIES OVER ERN OK AND CNTRL
AR LATER THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE LARGE HAIL.
..RACY.. 03/25/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...
LAT...LON 34999665 35109584 35109495 35009416 34809321 34549253
34199211 33739205 33259247 33019274 32869331 32869407
32989476 33099575 32989763 33939733 34999665
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