SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091533
LAZ000-TXZ000-091730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0010
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0933 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX...SW LA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 091533Z - 091730Z
AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE TX AND SW LA LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT COULD BE MARGINAL...WW
ISSUANCE CAN NOT BE RULED OUT LATE THIS MORNING.
A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM JUST WEST OF
HOUSTON TX NEWD TO NEAR ALEXANDRIA LA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD LATE
THIS MORNING INTO A MOIST AIRMASS WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID
TO UPPER 60S F. THE MOISTURE COMBINED WITH A STRONGLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. THE LATEST
WSR-88 VWPS FROM SE TX AND SW LA SHOW STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN STORM RELATIVELY HELICITIES OF 300
TO 400 M2/S2. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES MAY OCCUR ESPECIALLY IN A CORRIDOR FROM HOUSTON TX ENEWD
TO LAKE CHARLES LA WHERE THE COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR APPEAR MOST FAVORABLE. MESOANALYSIS ALSO SHOWS STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM SUGGESTING AN ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE
LINE. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING
LINE-SEGMENTS.
..BROYLES.. 01/09/2012
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
LAT...LON 31179407 30609521 29959586 29539603 29089590 28939536
29299454 29579380 29619282 29849236 30229216 30829210
31349232 31429280 31179407
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