SWOD48
SPC AC 090946
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012
VALID 121200Z - 171200Z
...DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT GENERAL AGREEMENT THROUGH MOST
OF DAY 6 /SAT. JAN. 14/...AFTER WHICH FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES
IN THE UPPER PATTERN BEGIN TO EMERGE -- INITIALLY OVER THE WRN
STATES. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF A LARGE TROUGH OVER
THE ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY IS WELL FORECAST EARLY IN THE
PERIOD...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SEWD SURGE OF COLD AIR BEHIND A
STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS REINFORCING FRONT -- FOLLOWING AN INITIAL
FRONT LIKELY TO HAVE PASSED MAINLY OFFSHORE BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD -- WILL CROSS THE ERN U.S. THROUGH DAY 4 /THU. JAN.
12/...LIKELY VACATING EVEN S FL BY EARLY DAY 5. WITH A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS HAVING FILTERED IN BEHIND THE INITIAL FRONT...EVEN THE
PASSAGE OF THIS SECOND/STRONGER BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ERN CONUS WILL
LIKELY YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS
LACK OF SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE
AT LEAST INTO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...GIVEN
PERSISTENT/COOL/STABLE CONTINENTAL AIRMASS.
..GOSS.. 01/09/2012
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