SWODY1
SPC AC 090526
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 PM CST SUN JAN 08 2012
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY DURING THE DAY...THEN EJECT EWD OVERNIGHT ACROSS TX WITH
CYCLONICALLY CURVED UPPER JET MAX NEAR THE SABINE RIVER BY 12Z TUE.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...LYING
ALONG THE TX COAST BY 00Z WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING LATE
OVER THE NWRN GULF OF MEXICO.
TO THE E AND DURING THE DAY...A WEAK FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL LA
INTO MS AND AL...WITH UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS GENERALLY
ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY.
...SRN AND ERN TX INTO LA...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL STRETCH FROM CNTRL TX NEWD INTO SRN
AR AND NRN LA EARLY MON MORNING WITH LITTLE MORE THAN A HEAVY RAIN
OR MARGINAL HAIL THREAT AT THAT TIME. DURING THE DAY...THESE STORMS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST AND MAY CREATE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES. ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY...PROBABLY MORE VIGOROUS
IN NATURE...SHOULD FORM NEAR THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT AS IT AFFECTS
THE MID AND UPPER TX COAST. SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
WILL FAVOR A FEW LONGER LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL. LOW LEVEL
VEERING WILL EXIST ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY POOR. A FEW STORMS MAY ACQUIRE
ROTATION...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO POSSIBLE OVER SERN TX. GUSTY
WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR BEFORE COLD FRONT AND/OR COMPOSITE OUTFLOWS
SURGE OFFSHORE WHERE MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.
...CNTRL MS/AL INTO WRN GA...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG A WEAK SURFACE
BOUNDARY/LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM LA INTO MS/AL/GA EARLY MON WHERE A
15-20 KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A FETCH OF MOISTURE OFF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK...BUT PERHAPS SUFFICIENT
FOR A FEW CELLS CAPABLE OF MAINLY MARGINAL HAIL GIVEN LONG
HODOGRAPHS AND MODEST LAPSE RATE PROFILES.
..JEWELL/LEITMAN.. 01/09/2012
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment