DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 091718
SWODY2
SPC AC 091717

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CST MON JAN 09 2012

VALID 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
GULF STATES...

...CENTRAL GULF STATES...

UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX IS EXPECTED TO EJECT TOWARD THE ARKLATEX BY
11/00Z AS STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW ROTATES THROUGH THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH INTO EAST TX. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY FORCE THE ATTENDANT SFC
FRONT TO A POSITION ALONG THE SABINE RIVER BY SUNRISE ARCING NWWD TO
A SFC LOW OVER NERN TX. IT APPEARS THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL
GRADUALLY DESTABILIZE OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER
DEW POINTS WILL RECOVER INTO THE MID 60S...POSSIBLY AS FAR INLAND AS
I-20 ALONG THE LA/MS BORDER BY MID DAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IT WOULD SEEM LIKELY THAT 500-1000 J/KG SBCAPE
WILL EXIST PRIOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD ALONG THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND WITHIN THE WARM
ADVECTION ZONE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT OVER AR. FORECAST SHEAR
PROFILES...AND LAPSE RATES THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
STEEP...SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE COMMON. IT/S NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH PRE-FRONTAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR
BUT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL BE
WEAK. FOR THIS REASON THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH AFOREMENTIONED LINE SEGMENTS/BOW SHAPED
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE STRONG SHEAR WILL OVERSPREAD THE IMMEDIATE
WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED TORNADOES. EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE LIMITED TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT
WHICH SHOULD SURGE INTO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE BY 11/12Z.

..DARROW.. 01/09/2012

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