DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS03 KWNS 010555
SWODY3
SPC AC 010554

DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1254 AM CDT TUE OCT 01 2013

VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES WITH UPPER
FLOW INCREASING ACROSS THE PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM NERN CO INTO SRN NEB AT 00Z. SLY FLOW ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE NWD...RESULTING IN
AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOCUSED FROM NERN
KS INTO IA.

...NERN KS...SERN NEB...IA...NRN MO...
AN AREA OF EARLY ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ALONG
AND N OF A STATIONARY BOUNDARY...FORCED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AS
MOISTURE RETURNS N WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET. THIS ZONE SHOULD BE
ROUGHLY FROM NEB INTO IA...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE
SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DURING THE DAY...A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS KS...WITH AREAS OF HEATING S OF EXISTING
OUTFLOWS OR CONVECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONT.

HODOGRAPHS WILL LENGTHEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH SPREADS INTO THE
PLAINS...AND THERE WILL BE A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY S OF THE
FRONT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REFORM BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL
LIKELY BE FOCUSED ALONG THE MAIN FRONT. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES...WITH ACTIVITY
POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS LATE WITH DAMAGING WIND.

HOWEVER..MODELS DIFFER AS TO LATITUDINAL POSITION OF THE SEVERE
CORRIDOR...WHICH COULD BE ALONG A TOPEKA TO KANSAS CITY LINE...OR
FARTHER N FROM OMAHA TO DES MOINES. THE ECMWF IS THE MOST NRN
SOLUTION WITH NAM FARTHER S. WILL DEFER TO LATER OUTLOOKS FOR ANY
SLIGHT RISK DESIGNATION AS PREDICTABILITY INCREASES.

..JEWELL.. 10/01/2013

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