SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301757
IDZ000-MTZ000-302000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1984
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1257 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...IDAHO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 301757Z - 302000Z
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON...PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED LARGE
HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
A COMPACT UPPER LOW IS CONTINUING ITS SLOW DRIFT TO THE EAST...AND
IS CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR THE OR/ID BORDERS AS OF 1730Z. CU
FIELD/CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE IN A SW-NE ORIENTED LINE
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW DUE TO FAVORABLE ASCENT/UPPER
DIVERGENCE...WITH A MUCH EARLIER START COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL TO SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
THE 12Z BOISE SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.85 INCH. MODEL
FORECASTS HAVE LITTLE GRASP ON REALITY IN REGARDS TO
INSTABILITY...BUT THE 12Z BOISE SOUNDING YIELDS APPROXIMATELY 500 TO
750 J/KG MUCAPE...WITH MODIFICATION YIELDING NEAR 1000 J/KG SBCAPE
BY AFTERNOON. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ENHANCED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR...COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND GUSTS. INITIAL CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY
LIMIT DMGG WIND GUSTS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE UNTIL AFTERNOON.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THE
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED.
..HURLBUT.. 08/30/2009
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...
LAT...LON 42381469 42011610 42341667 44151660 44501641 45011462
44731334 44451243 43321241 42751315 42531383 42381469
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