SWODY2
SPC AC 301720
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1220 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2009
VALID 311200Z - 011200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW DE-AMPLIFICATION AND EWD PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER PATTERN IS
FORECAST ACROSS THE U.S. THIS PERIOD...AS THE STRONGER PORTION OF
THE ERN U.S. TROUGH BEGINS LIFTING NEWD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW
ENGLAND. MEANWHILE...UPSTREAM RIDGING WILL EXPAND EWD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. AS THE ERN TROUGH DEPARTS...WHILE THE EMBEDDED NWRN
U.S. UPPER LOW WEAKENS AND MOVES SLOWLY ENEWD WITH TIME INTO NRN
WY/SRN MT.
AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD LINGER FROM THE COASTAL
CAROLINAS WSWWD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES INTO S TX...ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING THROUGH THE
PERIOD E OF THE ROCKIES. LEE TROUGHING OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...MEANWHILE...SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- AND
ASSOCIATED/LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
...SRN MT/NRN WY SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO NERN NM...
THE WEAKENING UPPER LOW MOVING ENEWD ACROSS ID COMBINED WITH MODEST
DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SRN MT/NRN WY WILL YIELD AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION. WHILE COOL MID-LEVEL AIR/STEEP
LAPSE RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONGER CELLS...WEAK FLOW ALOFT
PROGGED ON THE ERN FRINGE OF THIS FEATURE SUGGESTS NO MORE THAN AN
ISOLATED/MARGINAL HAIL POTENTIAL.
FARTHER S AND E -- INVOF A HIGH PLAINS LEE TROUGH...DIURNAL
HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED STORM
DEVELOPMENT -- FROM ERN WY SWD INTO ERN NM. WHILE RELATIVELY WEAK
WLYS AT MID-LEVELS ARE FORECAST...LOW-LEVEL SELY COMPONENT WILL
YIELD FAVORABLY-VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT -- AND THUS AMPLE SHEAR FOR
A FEW ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS. ATTM...GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO EXIST FROM SERN WY SWD INTO SERN CO -- WHERE GREATEST
DESTABILIZATION IS PROGGED. HOWEVER...WITH STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY
QUESTIONABLE BENEATH LARGE-SCALE RIDGING ALOFT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE
SLIGHT RISK/15% SEVERE PROBABILITY THIS FORECAST.
..GOSS.. 08/30/2009
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