SWOD48
SPC AC 290850
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
VALID 011200Z - 061200Z
...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A SEVERE THREAT AREA...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND MODEL ENSEMBLES SUGGEST THAT A STRONG
GENERALLY ZONAL UPPER FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND
THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. FROM THE MIDDLE OF THE COMING WORK
WEEK INTO THE LABOR DAY WEEKEND. HOWEVER...VARIABILITY CONCERNING
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS WITHIN THIS REGIME IS LARGE...RESULTING IN
LOW PREDICTABILITY. WHILE THERE IS LITTLE TO SUGGEST SUBSTANTIVE
POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER EVENT THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE PERIOD...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
RELATIVELY HIGH AND SUPPORTIVE OF MODERATE TO STRONG CAPE ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION INTO THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. IT MAY NOT BE
COMPLETELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT THIS COULD SUPPORT MORE THAN A
MINOR SEVERE THREAT WITH A FAVORABLY STRONG AND TIMED SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE.
..KERR.. 08/29/2010
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