SWODY1
SPC AC 291257
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0757 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
VALID 291300Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF AZ...
...SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN WILL REMAIN AMPLIFIED THROUGH EARLY MON AS ADDITIONAL SPEED
MAXIMA DROP SE INTO WRN U.S. TROUGH...AND RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES. VORT MAX NOW NEARING BASE OF TROUGH IN CA
SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E/SE INTO SRN NV LATER TODAY...AND INTO
UT/NRN AZ EARLY MON...MAINTAINING BELT OF SEASONABLY FAST SSWLY
MID/UPR LVL FLOW FROM THE LWR CO VLY TO THE ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL
RCKYS. ELSEWHERE...WEAK DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
SLOWLY NWD FROM THE CNTRL GULF CST.
SFC FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH WRN TROUGH LIKELY WILL EDGE ONLY SLOWLY
E/SE THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE OVER THE CNTRL GULF CST...DIFFUSE
WARM FRONT MARKING LEADING EDGE OF RICH/DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH SLOWLY-MOVING UPR DISTURBANCE SHOULD MOVE N ACROSS PARTS OF
LA/MS/AL.
...AZ...
SATELLITE...SFC...AND RAOB DATA SUGGEST THAT APPRECIABLE LOW LVL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER ROUGHLY THE SERN TWO-THIRDS OF AZ
TODAY...BENEATH MODERATE TO STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT. TSTMS
SHOULD INCREASE/SPREAD NEWD THIS AFTN/EVE...FROM THE SRN DESERTS
INTO THE RIM VICINITY AND THE SERN MOUNTAINS. 30-40 KT SWLY MID LVL
FLOW...LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF UPR LVL JET ENTRANCE REGION AS CA VORT
CONTINUES ESEWD...AMPLE PW /AROUND 1 INCH/...AND STEEP LOW LVL LAPSE
RATES TOGETHER SUGGEST THAT POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUSTAINED
STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS. DMGG WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN SVR THREAT...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR
HAIL...THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.
...ERN GRT BASIN/CNTRL RCKYS...
APPRECIABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING LIKELY WILL NOT AFFECT REGION UNTIL
EARLY MON AS UPR VORT APPROACHES FROM CA/NV. BUT SFC HEATING OF
DEEPLY MIXED...MODESTLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT ISOLD TO
WDLY SCTD HIGH BASED TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE OVER ERN UT...WRN CO AND
ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WY. COUPLED WITH SEASONABLY STRONG/NEARLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL SW FLOW ALOFT...SETUP MAY YIELD A FEW STORMS CAPABLE
OF STRONG/ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS.
...CNTRL GULF CST...
ENHANCED LOW LVL FLOW/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR ON N SIDE OF GULF CST
DISTURBANCE HAS SUPPORTED A FEW STORMS WITH WEAK/INTERMITTENT LOW
LVL ROTATION THIS MORNING. GIVEN VERY RICH MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS
REGION...AND LIKELY NWD ADVANCE OF SHEAR ZONE/MOISTURE AXIS WITH
CONTINUED NWD MOTION OF UPR VORT...A CONDITIONAL THREAT WILL EXIST
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AND/OR ISOLD LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS OVER PARTS
OF LA...MS...AND AL. THE STRONGEST SHEAR/FLOW
SHOULD...HOWEVER...REMAIN REMOVED FROM THE AREA OF GREATEST
MOISTURE. IN ADDITION...THE UPR SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN TODAY AS IT IS
DRAWN NWD ON W SIDE OF MID ATLANTIC RIDGE. THUS...ANY SVR RISK
SHOULD REMAIN BRIEF/MINIMAL.
..CORFIDI/ROGERS.. 08/29/2010
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