SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292243
AZZ000-300015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1755
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2010
AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632...
VALID 292243Z - 300015Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 632
CONTINUES.
THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT MODEST.
AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE REMAINS OVER
SERN AZ SUPPORTED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND UPPER 50S MEAN
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS PERSIST IN
THIS REGION BUT DO NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY ROBUST AT THIS TIME. WV
IMAGERY SHOWS ZONE OF PRONOUNCED MID-UPPER LEVEL DRYING HAS SPREAD
THROUGH MOST OF SRN THROUGH ERN AZ WHICH IS ALSO INDICATED ON THE
18Z RAOB DATA. DRY AIR ALOFT AND LACK OF A SOURCE FOR DEEPER
MESOSCALE ASCENT SUGGESTS THE STRENGTH OF THE UPDRAFTS COULD BE
MITIGATED SOMEWHAT DUE TO POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF MID-UPPER LEVEL
ENTRAINMENT. NEVERTHELESS...ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MODEST THREAT FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS WITHIN THE STRONGER CORES
THROUGH EARLY-MID EVENING.
..DIAL.. 08/29/2010
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...
LAT...LON 31451102 32581164 33831144 34321061 34140962 33220912
31650909 31451102
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