SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051605
DEZ000-MDZ000-VAZ000-051730-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1105 AM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...SRN DELMARVA PENINSULA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 051605Z - 051730Z
A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG STALLING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES IS BECOMING MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. THIS IS OCCURRING BENEATH A SMALL MID-LEVEL COLD
POCKET...CHARACTERIZED BY 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -10C...WHICH IS
IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST OF THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA. HOWEVER...MID-LEVELS MAY REMAIN COOL ENOUGH...GIVEN
CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING...FOR SUFFICIENT WEAKENING OF INHIBITION
TO ALLOW INITIATION OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA BY THE 18-20Z TIME FRAME. THIS MAY BE
AIDED BY ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR CHESAPEAKE
BAY...ASSOCIATED WITH THE SEA BREEZE.
MIXED LAYER CAPE INCREASING LOCALLY UP TO 2000-3000 J/KG ACROSS THIS
REGION WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER AROUND 1.7 INCHES. THOUGH DEEP
LAYER SHEAR WILL ONLY BE WEAK TO MODERATE IN STRENGTH...SOME
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE...IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED WET DOWNBURST.
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL REMAIN SMALL...BUT AN
ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADO DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION...MAINLY
ALONG OR NEAR WEAK INTERSECTING SURFACE BOUNDARIES.
.KERR.. 08/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...
38467635 38587557 38237499 37717478 37367510 37497577
37747616
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