SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051832
WYZ000-MTZ000-UTZ000-IDZ000-052100-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN ID...WRN/NCENTRAL WY...SWRN/SCENTRAL MT AND NRN
UT
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 051832Z - 052100Z
CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER ERN ID AND FAR WRN WY/NRN
UT AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL NV. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY REMAINS MARGINAL OVER THE AREA...IF SUFFICIENT
ORGANIZATION OCCURS WITH THIS ACTIVITY...THEN A WW MAY BE NEEDED.
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF LOWER 50S DEWPTS HAS ADVECTED
NWD THROUGH NRN UT INTO ERN ID AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
GREAT BASIN. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE REMAINING CINH OVER
THE AREA...BUT ONLY MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE LESS THAN 500
J/KG/. HOWEVER...STRONG WIND FIELDS /30-50 KTS FROM JUST ABOVE CLOUD
BASE PER VWP DATA/ ALONG WITH DRY ADIABATIC LAYER BENEATH THE LCL
SUGGESTS THAT A FEW TSTMS COULD BEGIN TO POSE A THREAT FOR DMGG
WINDS AS THEY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ALTHOUGH
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS OVER NWRN WY AND SWRN MT...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ORGANIZATION AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SVR THREAT THROUGH 21Z IS
EXPECTED TO BE OVER ERN ID AND FAR NERN NV/NWRN UT. CONVECTION
ACROSS THIS AREA SHOULD DEVELOP/INTENSIFY AHEAD OF AN ASSOCIATED SFC
TROUGH/DRYLINE CO-LOCATED WITH A MID LEVEL SPEED MAX.
.CROSBIE.. 08/05/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...
44961334 43481410 42711422 42101365 41841311 41751266
41701237 41681193 41791115 42311009 42810940 44630788
45250763 46220823 46331003 45581239
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