SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060056
INZ000-ILZ000-060200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2007
AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL AND NRN INDIANA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 060056Z - 060200Z
STORMS HAD RECENTLY INCREASED SOUTH OF THE CHI AREA AND HAVE
PRODUCED ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER. THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT
LIVED AND ISOLATED...SO A WW APPEARS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
A LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM 40 SSE OF CHI TO 75 SW OF CHI...
MOVING SEWD AT 20-25 KT. MLCAPE VALUES JUST AHEAD OF THE LINE RANGED
FROM 2000-2500 J/KG...WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR NEAR 35 KT. GIVEN THE
LINEAR NATURE OF THE STORMS...WIND DAMAGE SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.
HOWEVER...THE WIND THREAT WOULD BE GREATER IF THE STORMS MOVED MORE
EWD THAN SSEWD...WITH PREDOMINANTLY WLY WINDS ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. ALSO...20-25 KT 1KM SHEAR AND A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO. GIVEN THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BEGIN
STABILIZING SHORTLY WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING... THE THREAT
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AND WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
.IMY.. 08/06/2007
..PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
39638765 39988936 40868946 41328751 41648602 41068522
40158528 39598598
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