SWODY1
SPC AC 301528
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007
VALID 301630Z - 311200Z
..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
..SOUTH FLA...
T.S. NOEL WILL MOVE SLOWLY WWD OVER THE CUBA TODAY /REF LATEST NHC
FCSTS/. MEANWHILE...A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN
OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. AS T.S NOEL BEGINS TO LIFT NWWD
OVERNIGHT...THE ENSUING PRESSURE/GEO POTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT WILL
BEGIN TO INTENSIFY SUPPORTING INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR OVER SOUTH
FLA...WITH FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATING AROUND 150 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH
AFTER 31/06Z. DESPITE SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF T.S. NOEL /PER WV IMAGERY/
A FEW OUTER BANDS OF TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLA
OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODERATE SHEAR IS EXPECTED...MARGINAL
INSTABILITY /MUCAPES LESS THAN 1000 J/KG/ WILL PRECLUDE GREATER
VERTICAL STRETCHING WITH ANY TSTMS.
..NRN CA INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MID LEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CA INTO
THE SRN ROCKIES /ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD SRN STREAM TROUGH/...MODEST
MID LEVEL MOISTURE/STEEP LAPSE RATES AND WEAK VERTICAL MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL SUPPORT
ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED TSTMS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN CA EWD INTO
THE ROCKIES FRONT RANGE OF NERN CO/SERN WY.
..NRN WI/WRN U.P. OF MI...
AHEAD OF A STRONG SEWD MOVING NRN STREAM UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CANADIAN PRAIRIES...INCREASING VERTICAL MOTION AIDED BY
STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS COUPLED WITH STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SFC-850 MB FRONTAL ZONAL WILL SUPPORT
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION /MUCAPES UP TO 100 J/KG/ TO
WARRANT INCLUSION OF ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE FCST. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 31/06Z WHEN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING
INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
.CROSBIE/HALES.. 10/30/2007
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