DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 301230
SWODY1
SPC AC 301227

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0727 AM CDT TUE OCT 30 2007

VALID 301300Z - 311200Z

..NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

..SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INLAND/EWD FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND ACROSS THE WRN STATES
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WHILE A MUCH STRONGER NRN STREAM TROUGH
UNDERGOES AMPLIFICATION OVER THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY. AN EXTENSIVE SURFACE HIGH FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO
NORTHEAST WILL MAKE ONLY GRADUAL EWD PROGRESS TODAY WITH THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH CENTER AND LOW SURFACE PRESSURE
IN THE CARIBBEAN WITH T.S. NOEL MAINTAINING LONG-FETCH OF STOUT
ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS FL.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ALSO LIKELY FROM THE GREAT PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THESE AREAS BETWEEN THE
ERN U.S. HIGH AND DEEPENING LEE-TROUGH AND LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
ADVANCING AND AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO MT...WILL SPREAD
QUICKLY SEWD ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT...AND BE
SITUATED ROUGHLY ALONG A TX PNHDL TO U.P. OF MI LINE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

..SE FL...
WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER SERN FL FOR TONIGHT.
LATEST NHC/TPC TRACK FORECAST KEEPS CENTER OF T.S. NOEL WELL OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FL...AND REGION CURRENTLY LIES WITHIN AN AXIS OF LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BASED ON LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. HOWEVER...SOME
MODEL GUIDANCE...INCLUDING NAM-WRF/NAM-KF AND WRF-ARW INDICATE THAT
STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE SE COAST
COINCIDENT TO APPROACH OF FEEDER BAND CONVECTION AFTER DARK. GIVEN
VERY WARM/MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS RESIDING ACROSS SRN FL AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...A BRIEF TORNADO OR WATERSPOUT CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.

..WEST...
WEAK DESTABILIZATION WITHIN DEFORMATION AXIS ALONG AND NORTH OF
SHORT WAVE TRACKS FROM NRN CA TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES COULD AID WIDELY
SCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND GENERALLY WEAK
SHEAR IN THIS CORRIDOR SHOULD PRECLUDE SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT.

.CARBIN/JEWELL.. 10/30/2007

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